IRCC Reveals Expected Outflows for Work and Study Permit Holders Over the Coming Years

Canada’s immigration authority, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), recently announced its projections for temporary residents, also known as Non-Permanent Residents (NPRs), who are expected to either leave Canada or transition to permanent residency by the end of 2024. This group includes individuals on work and study permits, as well as other temporary statuses.

Expected Outflows of Non-Permanent Residents

According to IRCC’s Annual Report on Immigration for 2024, an estimated 588,409 NPRs will either depart from Canada or transition to permanent resident status by year-end. Despite these expected outflows, IRCC forecasts a net increase of 299,216 NPRs, leaving Canada with around 2.9 million NPRs, or about 7.1% of the population by the end of the year.

NPR Outflows for the Next Three Years

IRCC has laid out projections for NPR outflows over the next three years:

These outflows align with IRCC’s goal of reducing the number of temporary residents to 5% of Canada’s total population by 2026.

Anticipated Inflows of Non-Permanent Residents

Despite a reduction strategy, IRCC still expects to welcome new NPRs each year to meet labor and educational needs, estimating 887,625 new NPRs by the end of 2024 alone. Here are the expected inflows over the next three years:

Work and Study Permit Breakdown

The inflow of work permits under the International Mobility Program (IMP) and the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) supports key economic sectors, with specific allocations including:

• International Mobility Program (IMP): Covers Post-Graduation Work Permits (PGWP), International Experience Class (IEC), Trade Agreement Work Permits (e.g., under CUSMA, CETA), Intra-Company Transfers, and Significant Benefit Work Permits.
• Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP): Includes High-Wage, Low-Wage, Agriculture, and In-Home Caregiver streams, as well as the Seasonal Agricultural Worker Program and Global Talent Stream.

IRCC's plan reflects a balance between supporting Canada’s labor market and managing population growth responsibly. As Canada continues to shape its immigration policies, these changes aim to foster sustainable growth and ensure that NPRs and Canadian citizens alike have access to housing, jobs, and essential social services.