How Many Express Entry ITAs Could Be Issued in December 2024?

As we near the end of 2024, many prospective immigrants are curious about how many Invitations to Apply (ITAs) will be issued through Canada’s Express Entry system in December. While the exact number is uncertain, analyzing past trends can help us estimate what to expect. Based on patterns from previous years, it’s reasonable to predict that 3,522 ITAs could be issued this December—but this number is only an estimate and could vary significantly.

In this blog, we’ll explore how this estimate was calculated and which candidates are most likely to receive these coveted invitations.

How Does IRCC Decide the Number of ITAs to Issue?

Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) issues ITAs to meet annual immigration targets for landings, which occur when someone officially becomes a permanent resident (PR). However, not every ITA results in a landing, as some applications are returned or refused. Additionally, landings usually lag behind ITAs due to processing times.

A recent IRCC memorandum highlighted this lag, noting that most ITAs issued between July 2024 and February 2025 will count toward 2025 permanent residence targets.

To estimate how many ITAs might be issued in December, historical trends can provide insights. Between July and December in non-COVID years, IRCC has typically issued ITAs equal to 43-46% of the following year’s immigration target.

Calculating the Estimated ITAs for December

For 2025, the federal government has set a landing target of 124,680 immigrants through the Express Entry system. By the end of November 2024, IRCC had issued 52,888 ITAs, which equals 42.42% of the 2025 target.

If IRCC follows the historical average of issuing 45.25% of next year’s landing target between July and December, approximately 3,522 ITAs could still be issued in December.

However, it’s important to note:

• This number is based on historical patterns and may not reflect IRCC’s actual plans.
• Factors like ITA refusal rates and processing times, which IRCC monitors, could influence the final numbers.
  
  

Who Is Likely to Receive an ITA in December?

IRCC’s 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan divides Express Entry landings into two categories:

1. Federal Economic Priorities
• Focuses on candidates with professional skills and experience in high-demand industries or strong French language proficiency.
• Key target areas include:
• Healthcare occupations
• Skilled trades
• French-speaking candidates
• 2025 Target: 41,700 admissions
  
  
2. In-Canada Focus
• Prioritizes candidates already living and working in Canada, such as those in:
• Canadian Experience Class (CEC)
• Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) streams aligned with Express Entry
• Potentially, Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP) and Federal Skilled Trades Program (FSTP) candidates
• 2025 Target: 82,980 admissions
  
  

Given these categories, candidates most likely to receive ITAs in December include:

• CEC candidates already in Canada.
• PNP candidates with provincial nominations linked to Express Entry.
• French-speaking candidates (part of Canada’s plan to increase Francophone immigration).
• Professionals in healthcare and skilled trades.
  
  

Recent Express Entry Draw Trends

Recent draws provide additional clues about IRCC’s priorities. Between August and November 2024, the following types of draws were held:

These trends indicate that IRCC continues to focus on candidates already in Canada or those with skills and qualifications that align with Canada’s economic priorities.

Final Thoughts

While it’s impossible to know exactly how many ITAs will be issued in December, analyzing historical trends and recent policies provides valuable insights. If IRCC follows past patterns, around 3,522 ITAs may be issued before the year ends, with many likely going to CEC, PNP, and Francophone candidates, as well as professionals in healthcare and skilled trades.

For candidates in the Express Entry pool, staying updated on draw trends and preparing your application can improve your chances of receiving an ITA.